Could this long round of armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah finally come to an end? It’s too early to know for sure, but all signs seem to point in this direction.
Lebanon and Hezbollah have reportedly agreed yesterday to a US ceasefire proposal. American envoy Amos Hochstein arrived in Beirut today to finalise a deal between the sides. It seems that there’s an agreement on most issues, and Hochstein’s role is to tie up a few loose ends.
Even if an agreement is reached, it would only be a temporary solution
According to the terms of the ceasefire, Hezbollah will have to abide by UN Security Resolution 1701 from 2006. It stipulates that Hezbollah cannot have armed presence in southern Lebanon – south of the Litani river. The only remaining armed forces in south Lebanon would be the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and the Lebanese army. After 60 days, if the terms are upheld, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) will withdraw.
Since the 2006 war ended, Hezbollah has been in violation of the resolution by building up considerable force along the border with Israel. Like Hamas, Hezbollah has built an extensive array of tunnels reaching the border and holds huge stocks of weapons. It reportedly planned to carry out an attack on Israeli towns similar to the massacre committed by Hamas on 7 October 2023.
The safety measures employed in the past have clearly failed, and Israel has little confidence that even if an agreement is reached, new safety measures will stop Hezbollah from once again establishing presence in south Lebanon. Israel therefore seeks to keep a right to operate against Hezbollah in south Lebanon in the future, if the organisation breaks the terms of the agreement. This is a sticking point in the agreement that Hezbollah and Lebanon object to.
Hezbollah started attacking Israel on 8 October 2023 – a day after Hamas’s attack, in solidarity with the Palestinian terror organisation. For months, it refused to negotiate a ceasefire until one was reached in Gaza first. Now this is no longer a pre-requisite, making an agreement more likely. Hezbollah has effectively abandoned Hamas, which could weaken the Palestinian terror group further. But why have Hezbollah changed their position so drastically?
Hezbollah was until recently the most powerful terror organisation in the world, with thousands of experienced fighters and vast financial resources. It was armed to the teeth with Iranian and Russian weapons. Despite its might, it has taken roughly two months for the IDF to bring it to its knees.
Israel’s offensive started in September, with two consecutive clandestine operations that saw thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah commanders exploding. This has taken several thousand terrorists out of commission due to injuries – many have lost eyes and limbs. It also crippled the organisation’s communications. Then, in another major blow to Hezbollah, the IDF managed to kill their leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Nasrallah was a charismatic and talented leader that has transformed Hezbollah into a regional powerhouse, with military might and a political stronghold in Lebanon.
The organisation was battered, humiliated and in chaos. It had no effective leadership and compromised communications. Many of its tunnels were blown up by the IDF and much of its weapons arsenal captured or destroyed. Still, although significantly weakened, Hezbollah remains able to fire missiles and drones into Israel. In fact, the last few days saw an escalation that caused Israeli casualties. But Hezbollah now desperately needs a ceasefire in order to rebuild its capabilities.
Israel too wants a ceasefire that will allow tens of thousands of Israelis evacuated from northern towns to finally return home – having lived as refugees since October 2023. A ceasefire will make it possible to rebuild northern towns that suffered considerable wreckage during the war and allow Israelis in the rest of the country, who have suffered months of bombing, to return to some form of normality. A ceasefire may also help avoid an Iranian strike, which Iran has so far postponed following the IDF’s bombing of military facilities in October.
Even if an agreement is reached, it would only be a temporary solution. With help from Iran and Russia, and using its vast revenue streams, Hezbollah will eventually recover. The Lebanese government and army are too weak to stop them, and UN forces in the region are unable or unwilling.
Israelis cannot afford to rest on their laurels. The IDF may try its best to slow Hezbollah down by military means, including intercepting weapons shipments and conducting precision operations in Lebanon, but the real solution lies in targeting the money, which can only be an international endeavour.
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