Tomorrow’s vote in Oldham East and Saddleworth is the first big event of the
political year. It is a marginal seat that Labour just held at the last election, beating the Liberal Democrats by a touch over a hundred votes. But the by-election has been caused by the Lib Dem
candidate taking the Labour MP to an election court over false statements which has placed particular pressure on the Liberal Democrats to perform well.
The polls at the weekend had Labour romping home. But the Liberal Democrats are confident that they will run Labour close, talking about a margin of a thousand or less.
If the Lib Dems come a strong second, the result will be pretty much be a wash politically. But if Labour do end up walking it, it will put more pressure on Nick Clegg to do more to differentiate himself and his party.
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