The News of the World has its expensive and much-awaited ICM poll of the marginals
tomorrow. There is some good news for Cameron, and some not-so-good news. First: 66 percent of voters in the marginals agree with the message “it’s time for change”. Bad news: a
surprisingly large number think that Nick Clegg represents that change. A Lib Dem surge means that Tory swing is just 6 percent in the marginals, versus 5 percent nationally. Where is the Lord
Ashcroft magic? In James’s political column this week, he says the Tories had been so confident about the marginals that they reckon they need a 5-point lead nationally to win, rather than the
8-point lead previously assumed. The News of the World/ICM poll challenges that narrative.
As the NotW says, the LibDems “are up an astonishing 5 percent since January and are now closer than ever to holding the balance of power They have taken 4 percent off the Conservatives in the marginal seats, while Labour have been unable to win any new support.”
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