Shiraz Maher

An arms race in the Middle East is a real possibility

The war with Iran has already been raging for many months. So far, Western powers have largely confined themselves to covert operations designed to thwart Tehran’s nuclear aspirations. However, the bombing of a bus carrying Israeli tourists in Bulgaria on Wednesday marks a dramatic escalation in hostilities.

In the past, western intelligence agencies have assassinated and kidnapped Iranian nuclear scientists, at one stage picking off a different target every few months. Not only did this hinder Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons, but it was also deeply embarrassing to the regime because of the sophistication with which attacks were being conducted right under its nose.

Further embarrassment occurred in late 2010 when Iranian nuclear computers were infected with the powerful Stuxnet virus. Ahmadinejad later conceded that the virus had caused problems with centrifuge control systems at its Natanz facility.

These covert operations are part of a broader approach officials hoped would hinder Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons, alongside diplomatic measures including sanctions and increased international pressure.

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