What is going on with the opinion polls? In his first national poll of 2015, Lord Ashcroft has the Conservatives six points ahead of Labour at 34 per cent — whereas Populus also have a new poll out today putting Labour five points ahead. And yesterday’s YouGov poll put both on 32 per cent. As the chart above shows, three of the UK’s most prominent pollsters all have completely different predictions on who will win the next election.
This poll shows a significant jump in the Conservative position since Ashcroft’s last 2014 poll, which put the party on 40 per cent. So, the question is what’s going on — is this the beginning of the long awaited ‘crossover’ with Labour that Conservative HQ have been hoping for? Or is this an anomaly? One theory is that this could be the first sign of voters making up their minds against Labour and the party’s soft lead is beginning to evaporate.
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