The first thing to be said about the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ latest assessment of an independent Scotland’s long-term fiscal well-being is that the IFS’s assessments of the UK’s long-term vitality are also pretty gloomy. Neither is terribly pretty. Much the same, of course, could be said of France and, in fact, most other western countries. An Age of Plenty is being replaced by an Era of Making Do. Reality stings.
So the difference between Scotland and the rest of the UK is one of degree not kind. Moreover, it would be wise to remember that these are projections, not predictions, and that they are largely based on present trends and assumptions. These have a habit of changing. So, for that matter, does policy.
Nevertheless, there is no escaping the fact that the headline figures are pretty dreich. An independent Scotland would need “significant additional fiscal tightening” in addition to measures currently proposed by the British government.
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