After Sturgeon: what’s the future for Scotland – and the Union?

When news broke of Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation, the first reaction among Tory ministers was delight. For years, she had been one of their most formidable opponents and potent threats: perhaps the only politician capable of leading a Scottish independence campaign to victory. Without her, what would happen to the SNP? But then the elation faded. If nationalists’ votes are up for grabs, would they be more likely to go to Labour or the Tories? Sturgeon’s departure has consequences far beyond that of the SNP leadership. The UK’s whole political landscape could be about to change.

In her resignation statement at Bute House, Sturgeon said she believed more than ever in the cause of independence but had come to see herself as an obstacle, not an enabler. ‘We must reach across the divide in Scottish politics and my judgment now is that a new leader will be better able to do this,’ she said. ‘Someone about whom the mind of almost everyone in the country was not already made up – for better or worse. Someone who is not subject to quite the same polarised opinions, fair or unfair, as I now am.’

Plenty in her party agree. SNP sources likened her departure to that of the recent resignation of New Zealand premier Jacinda Ardern, hailing her as a selfless, progressive leader who decided to quit for the sake of her party when in fact she was facing problems she couldn’t escape. Her internal critics say the reality is Sturgeon was becoming mired in failure and scandal – and knew there would not be a winnable referendum any time soon. To pretend otherwise was a fiction that, in the end, even she was unable to maintain.