After his arrival in Moscow on Monday, President Xi Jinping said that China is ready, along with Russia, ‘to stand guard over the world order based on international law’. This statement came closer than ever before to articulating his view that a normative struggle is going on between a western-dominated order, and one more suited to Beijing’s interests. As he departed yesterday, he went further: ‘Right now there are changes, the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years. And we are the ones driving these changes together.’
Having positioned himself as a potential peacemaker, Xi clearly believes the war in Ukraine presents him with a win-win situation – or even a win-win-win one. His thinking is that, if Vladimir Putin ends up clawing some kind of victory, the West will be discredited and is likely to descend into recrimination and introspection. In other words: a win for Xi.
However, if Ukraine triumphs, then Russia’s slump into Chinese vassalage will be accelerated: another win for China.
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