Afghanistan Isn’t Working

For years now, Afghanistan policy has been governed by a simple question: Do the unknown costs of leaving Afghanistan trump the known costs of staying in Afghanistan? Until now the answer, at least officially, has always been Yes. But this is not a static question. The known price of remaining in Afghanistan increases all the time; the unknown consequences of withdrawal remain, at best, constant. Indeed, in as much as al-Qaeda’s Afghan capability has been reduced, the costs of withdrawal may in fact be less than once they were.

That scarcely means an Afghanistan without NATO troops is going to be a grand place. Nevertheless, it is clear that the American-led presence in Afghanistan is not working to prudce a sustainable political or military solution. At some point too the war must be subject to the laws of diminishing returns. Each additional billion spent in Afghanistan produces less. The war, whatever its merits, is increasingly unproductive and sunk costs can’t justify further expenditure forever.