AfD on track to turn a third of Germany blue

With less than six weeks to go until voters head to the polls, the snap federal election campaign in Germany is finally heating up. The AfD is set to turn a third of Germany blue and clinch five of the country’s 16 states in the party list vote: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Brandenburg, Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringia and Saxony. This should award the party approximately 19.7 per cent of the vote – translating to 146 seats in the Bundestag.

Just in time for the weekend, the pollsters YouGov have released their first MRP survey, revealing the likely voting intention of Germans at a nationwide, state and constituency level. For Germany’s establishment parties, hoping to maintain the firewall against the insurgent far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party, the results make for grim reading.

All but one of the other states are projected to fall to the conservative CDU party, led by the man most likely to become the next chancellor, Friedrich Merz.