A whole batch of Brownies

There are some pretty cheeky claims in today’s Pre-Budget Report. One is that “Cyclically-adjusted borrowing is lower than at Budget across the medium-term forecast.” (page 171). That makes it sound like it’s all under got a bit better since the Budget. But in fact the “cyclically adjusted” improvement is entirely because of a redefinition of the cycle – not because of any actual reduction in the deficit.  For example, the PBR forecasts the deficit for 2013/4 as 5.5 percent of GDP – exactly the same as that in the 2009 Budget.
 
Another claim is that “The annual pace of consolidation set out in this Pre-Budget report is faster than the pace of deficit reduction forecast by the IMF for all other G7 economies” (page 33). What the PBR doesn’t mention here is that the UK will have to reduce borrowing more in the future precisely because it is currently increasing it far more than these other countries.