A vote for the SNP is a vote for a Labour government

For decades now the SNP have thirsted for the moment when they can be ‘relevant’ to the outcome of a Westminster general election. Well, they have that relevance now. Never before has the launch of their manifesto attracted this kind of attention. Then again, never before has the SNP had realistic hopes of becoming the third largest party in the House of Commons.

But strength is often just weakness disguised and, once again, more than one thing can be true at the same time. And the truth is that the SNP’s position is both remarkably strong and much weaker than many people assume.

I still don’t believe that the nationalists will win 50 of the 59 seats they are contesting but I concede that my faith in this belief is a little weaker than it was a fortnight ago. It has to be reckoned possible even if not yet probable. I still suspect that the SNP will win a majority of Scottish seats but Labour will cling on to more constituencies than the polls currently suggest.