A US-China tit-for-tat hardly amounts to a serious trade war

‘Stocks plunge as China hits US goods with tariffs,’ said a headline after the long weekend, and the FTSE100 duly dipped below 7,000. But I wonder what a serious trade war would look like — and how markets would respond if the White House and Beijing took the gloves off. Last year, China exported $500 billion worth of goods to the US, while US exports to China amounted to $135 billion. Last month, President Trump announced import tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese steel and aluminium, 10 per cent of the total import bill. China has hit back with tariffs on US steel tubes plus an eclectic product list ranging from aluminium scrap to frozen pork liver, adding up to $3 billion — which, to quote Humphrey Bogart, ‘don’t amount to a hill of beans in this crazy world’.

The truth is that Trump’s first move was a shallow bid for adulation from benighted blue-collar supporters — and every wise head in Washington told him it was stupid.