A pause between wars

‘What is to stop it happening again?’ was the pertinent question put to me by a Lebanese friend this week as we discussed over a mezze the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Given what we know of the terms agreed between the combatants, the answer seems to be, ‘Not a lot.’ Generally, I am not one to pour cold water or see the glass half empty. But beyond welcoming a cessation in the brutal meeting out of death by bombardment on the civilians in both Lebanon and northern Israel, it is hard to see the ceasefire agreement as sustainable in the long term.  

Since Hezbollah weighed in quickly to support Hamas and attack northern Israel after the atrocities of 7 October, it was always a question of when and how Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government would respond. The war aims he laid down on 1 October when the Israeli Defence Forces eventually invaded southern Lebanon to drive back Hezbollah fighters were less ambitious than those set out for the conflict against Hamas.