A new world power

For decades, America has dreamed about becoming self-sufficient in terms of energy, and ending its dependence on unsavoury Arab regimes. Now this dream seems within reach. The International Energy Agency this week forecast that America is undergoing a fuel revolution, and that it will overtake Saudi Arabia to become the world’s biggest oil producer by the end of this decade. By 2035, America should be able to meet almost all of its own energy needs. Energy prices are already plummeting, and global manufacturers have started to pull out of Europe and relocate to the southern states to cut bills. An economic miracle is under way.

The reason for the miracle is hydraulic fracturing, or fracking. American energy companies have mastered new ways of releasing oil and gas trapped in shale rocks by firing high-pressure jets of water at them. Just five years ago, this was an emerging technology. Now, shale provides America with a third of its gas. Presidents from Jimmy Carter to George W. Bush have fantasised about drawing ‘renewable’ energy from wind, sea, crops — even wood chips. In the end, the answer has come from fossil fuels. Environmentalists may howl, but let’s remember gas is greener: it emits half as much carbon dioxide as coal. The shale revolution means that America is now leading the world in cutting its carbon footprint, with its emissions down 5 per cent so far this year.

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It is hard to overstate the implications of this energy shift, not just to the American economy but to the world order. In the Persian Gulf, the peace is maintained by the US Navy, which spends some $80 billion a year patrolling the sea lanes. Will it still do so when America no longer needs Arab oil? Vladimir Putin has built his Russia around an oligarch-friendly system where the Kremlin will turn a blind eye to corruption as long as the petrodollars flood in from the Caspian Sea.