A new Iranian revolution should worry the West

Is Iran on the brink of a revolution? The mullahs’ main political adversaries in Washington and Tel Aviv appear to think so, as does much of the western media. With the Wall Street Journal reporting that Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard Corps is taking charge of security in Tehran, it is equally clear that the regime is taking no chances. And perhaps wisely so.

The last time the repressive Islamist theocracy witnessed such popular upheaval was in 2009. But then the mostly peaceful mass street demonstrations were orchestrated under the unifying banner of a maverick politician, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and what briefly blossomed into his Green Movement. Mousavi had failed to beat Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in presidential elections, and his supporters – as well as those of other defeated opposition candidates – smelled a rat. But while the movement did galvanise some sections of the middle class outside of Mousavi’s base, most notably students, the mass sit-ins barely spread outside of Tehran and the country’s other major cities.