Making political predictions can be about as foolhardy as walking into a Las Vegas casino and predicting success at the blackjack table – better to pipe down, be humble, and watch how the action develops. But if there is one thing we can bet our money on, it’s that a defeated Donald Trump (assuming, of course, he will be defeated tonight) will still have quite a lot of time to enact policies and make history before vacating the Oval Office. There is a popular assumption that U.S. presidents who will return to normal life in late January are lame-ducks twiddling their thumbs for the remainder of their terms. History, however, demonstrates how wrong that assumption is.
Free from electoral considerations and only two months away from retirement, presidents on their way out the door will very often use the remainder of their tenures to notch legacy-defining wins, protect their friends and associates, and push through reforms that on a normal day would produce howls from Congress and the public.
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