A hung parliament looks a lot more likely than most media experts allow

A growing band of us do not believe the opinion polls. We cannot entirely explain our doubt. We argue backwards from our hunch — that the voters do not wish to give Tony Blair anything like the thumbs-up they gave him before — to an array of rationalisations about how, whatever today’s polls may suggest, tomorrow’s general election could go wrong for New Labour.

The relationship between the present Prime Minister and the British people has broken down. Repair is about as likely as the unsouring of soured milk. Conversations overheard — on buses, in aeroplanes, pubs and on the street — imply an attitude of widespread derision. Ministers on Question Time or Any Questions? are barely able to open their mouths in Mr Blair’s defence before their audiences begin to howl them down. On such a panel with Patricia Hewitt the other week I found myself feeling really sorry for a calm and fair-minded woman struggling to be heard as waves of hatred broke over her head.