A growing band of us do not believe the opinion polls. We cannot entirely explain our doubt. We argue backwards from our hunch — that the voters do not wish to give Tony Blair anything like the thumbs-up they gave him before — to an array of rationalisations about how, whatever today’s polls may suggest, tomorrow’s general election could go wrong for New Labour.
The relationship between the present Prime Minister and the British people has broken down. Repair is about as likely as the unsouring of soured milk. Conversations overheard — on buses, in aeroplanes, pubs and on the street — imply an attitude of widespread derision. Ministers on Question Time or Any Questions? are barely able to open their mouths in Mr Blair’s defence before their audiences begin to howl them down. On such a panel with Patricia Hewitt the other week I found myself feeling really sorry for a calm and fair-minded woman struggling to be heard as waves of hatred broke over her head.
It was not the Trade and Industry Secretary they hated. They were hating by proxy: hating the Prime Minister.
Our democracy is now — sadly — quasi-presidential. Come the general election there will be some 645 proxy-Blairs standing in constituencies across the country. Pencil in hand, electors will stare down at the barely recognised names of their Labour candidates on the ballot slip. Blair’s grinning chops will stare back. If you think this will be without effect on the result — not least on the likelihood of Labour voters bothering to make the journey to their polling station in the first place — then you are living in a different Britain from me.
None of this means the nation will love Michael Howard any more next spring (or this November) than they love him now.
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