You know what it’s like. It starts getting hotter. Stickier, too. There’s something in the air you can’t quite put your finger on. But you sense it all the same. A storm is coming.
David Cameron’s insistence – in the face of significant opposition from some of his parliamentary colleagues and possibly even more opposition significant from the king across the water, Boris Johnson – that something must be done in Syria is giving me that same feeling. This is exactly the kind of ‘exogenous shock’ that can blow up suddenly, blow coalitions apart and cost Prime Ministers their jobs.
Academic observers generally try to avoid predictions, but that doesn’t stop us exploring the whys, the whens and the hows of politics. And when it comes to what causes coalitions to fall apart, we believe we may have learned a thing or two from years of overseas experience.
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