There’s been a momentous election in Africa, Botswana to be exact. Not heard about it? Don’t be surprised. The British and US media have all but ignored the story or got it wrong in the run-up. Even the BBC barely mentioned it though they bang on about Israel to such a degree you’d think the war was in Guernsey instead of Gaza.
On 30 October, Botswana held a general election as they have every five years since independence from Britain in 1966. Of all the countries in Africa, it’s the only one that’s never had a coup or a period of autocratic rule. But since 1966, the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) has won every time.
80 per cent of adults in Botswana believe there is corruption at the highest level of government
No surprise given a gerrymander that works in their favour and scant attention paid to the vote itself. In Zimbabwe, Britain goes rightly moggy over rigged elections. And there’s enormous focus on South Africa, Kenya, even Nigeria. So why not here? Because on every motion of substance at the UN, including all the resolutions against Russia over its war in Ukraine, Botswana votes with Nato, whereas South Africa and much of the region abstains.
A momentous election? Yes, because this time the ruling BDP came fourth, with just four seats out of the 61 in parliament. President Mokgweetsi Masisi, 63, was standing for a second and final term, as allowed by the constitution, and had a comfortable majority from the previous election in 2019. Masisi’s rival was Harvard lawyer and human rights activist Duma Boko, who had persuaded four opposition parties to group themselves as the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC).
I was in Botswana last month, and it was clear to me the government was in trouble. Of all the people I spoke to, not one said they intended to vote for the BDP. And they believed the system was rigged.
Michelle Gavin was US ambassador to Gaborone from 2011 to 2014 and is now a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in Washington. A day before the election she penned an excellent take, explaining how polls show 80 per cent of adults in Botswana believe there is corruption at the highest level of government and unemployment among the youth is at a record high.
The former ambassador’s prediction? A ‘BDP victory that returns President Masisi to office for another term,’ she wrote, was ‘the most likely outcome.’
How did she and the establishment get it so wrong? Here’s how Boko did it.
Boko had run before. In 2019, his UDC lost and he alleged there’d been ‘massive electoral discrepancies’. The ruling party used state-owned radio and television for propaganda. Journalists who criticised the government found themselves barred from briefings.
So Boko hatched a plan. This time around, his party recruited thousands of volunteers who would stand guard at every polling booth, keeping the boxes in sight until they were opened after which they watched the entire count and logged the numbers – something the British, US and EU observers should have been doing all these years.
Out of Masisi’s 38 MPs, 34 lost their deposit and the UDC has a majority in the house. The president conceded before the count was finished. Botswana is a member of the Commonwealth, so you’d think there’d have been more coverage – but few seemed to care. Like Michele Gavin, those who did assumed history would repeat itself.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy were quick to send their congratulations to the new leader. Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa did the same. But everyone appeared to be in shock.
In the weeks leading up to the vote, I spent a lot of time with the man who is now President Boko of Botswana. He is suave, sharp and swore me to secrecy on his party’s plan to micro-monitor the vote. In 40 years at this game, I’ve never revealed anything told to me ‘off the record’ and I kept my word.
Even I was amazed at how well it worked out and the utter collapse of Masisi’s once-invincible party. So what comes next?
Botswana’s GDP is dominated by diamonds and, thanks to factory-made stones, the real things have crashed in value. Most of the trade is handled by De Beers, which is in turn owned by the London-based company Anglo American. Some months ago, the Aussie mega-firm BHP tried to buy that company for £38 billion but were knocked back. Anglo then announced it would hive off De Beers and a few other assets. In 2018, 2 per cent of US engagement rings carried a factory gem; now it’s close to half, and growing. Selling De Beers might be akin to flogging a VHS tape. But President Boko hopes to assemble a global consortium, rescue the brand and headquarter it in Gaborone.
His other problem is youth unemployment. The streets of the capital are rife with youngsters looking for work. He plans to diversify the economy and Britain should help where it can with know-how and investment. The youth will only stay quiet for so long and if we want this new-found democracy to thrive, then riots are not the answer. The euphoria this change has brought to town is real, but people can’t eat it.
2024 hasn’t been a good year for ‘legacy’ parties. In August, the African National Congress lost in South Africa and have been forced into an awkward coalition that trembles with every vote in parliament. Then it was Botswana’s turn.
On 27 November, Namibia will decide whether to keep the South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO) after 30 years in power. SWAPO has an 11-seat majority; in 2019 they lost 14 seats and another drop like that will see them out of office.
If you’ve read this far, at least you won’t be able to say you didn’t know the election in Namibia was happening. Let’s just hope the media will tear itself away from the Middle East long enough to report it.
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