A Chinese invasion of Taiwan remains unlikely

For a second day, yesterday, Chinese fighter jets and warships surrounded Taiwan for drills which the People’s Liberation Army said were designed to ‘test the ability to jointly seize power, launch joint attacks and occupy key areas’. They followed the inauguration earlier this week of Taiwan’s new and democratically elected president Lai Ching-te, who Beijing has characterised as a ‘dangerous separatist’. The exercises were a ‘strong punishment’, said the PLA, presumably for Taiwan’s audacity in electing a leader who wants to distance the island as far as possible from the thuggish leaders of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

China sent bombers towards the island in attack formations and carried out mock missile attacks in coordination with naval vessels, according to Chinese state media. For the first time the drills included the Chinese coast guard (which is bigger than most navies in the region), which carried out ‘law enforcement’ drills – a euphemism for the harassment of regular ships bound for Taiwan.