Here’s an interesting factoid. We have gone the longest time since any serving Cabinet Minister has lost their seat… ever. Seven were booted out in 1997, most famously Defence Secretary Michael Portillo in Enfield Southgate – an experience shared by just 32 people since 1900. To some extent, MPs from marginals may be less likely to reach the Cabinet: they are by definition more likely to be newly elected and are forced to spend vast amounts of time and energy campaigning in their constituency, from which a Cabinet role can serve as a distraction.
2015 seems likely to end this streak, with five names around the current Cabinet table looking precarious.
Chief Secretary to the Treasury: Danny Alexander (Liberal Democrat)
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey
Majority over Labour: 8,765
Majority over SNP (main challengers): 10,369
Likelihood of loss (electionforecast.co.uk): 99%
Likelihood of loss (Ladbrokes odds): 82%
A seat as vast as its name is long, Wee Danny gained his seat from Labour in 2005 – but Inverness has a Liberal history going back over a century.
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