Expect the unexpected has been the rule in British politics these last few years. But even so, few would have predicted the events of the past week. Last Tuesday evening the Brexit talks seemed dead. Even the most mild-mannered figures in Downing Street held out little hope of a deal this side of an election. That all began to shift, though, after Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar met last Thursday.
What changed was that they both realised that the other was serious about a deal. They stopped seeing each other’s proposals as a trap and began engaging with them. This doesn’t guarantee a deal, though. Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar’s desire to get this done is a necessary but not sufficient condition for an agreement.
Boris Johnson is acutely aware that he needs to be able to get whatever he signs up to through parliament, and that means the Democratic Unionist Party must be happy with it. At a minimum that will require Northern Ireland remaining part of the customs territory of the United Kingdom and having an ability to exit the arrangement with the EU if it wants to. The EU, though, want no checks or controls on the island of Ireland, predictability about the future of these arrangements, and no distortions in the EU’s internal market or customs union. The last point is particularly tricky as this leads to the EU saying that there must be level-playing-field provisions. In other words, there mustn’t be a competitive advantage for firms in Northern Ireland. If this means that the UK must accept the level playing field for Northern Ireland, then that is probably acceptable to the government. But doing so for the whole of the UK would not be politically sellable. The purpose of Brexit would be stifled for many Tory MPs if the UK was treaty-bound to follow European rules in these areas.
Comments
Join the debate for just £1 a month
Be part of the conversation with other Spectator readers by getting your first three months for £3.
UNLOCK ACCESS Just £1 a monthAlready a subscriber? Log in