It is remarkably uncommon for a US president to fail to be re-elected. It has happened just twice in the long lifetime of Joe Biden: with Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992. On Tuesday, however, it looks likely that it will happen again. It is not just that Donald Trump is trailing badly and consistently in the national polls — he was behind in 2016 but won nonetheless — it is that his support seems to be draining most in his own heartlands. Biden appears to be well ahead in industrial ‘rustbelt’ states like Michigan and Wisconsin where Trump’s protectionist message gave him victory four years ago.
There is little question that a Biden victory would be popular in Britain — as it would in many countries. For many, the four years of Trump have been a horror show which, angry tweet by angry tweet, has reduced America’s standing in the world. Trump never seemed to make the transition from an incumbent anti-establishment candidate to a president. To continue to behave as an insurgent when you are the most powerful man in the world is absurd.
But there are good reasons not to join the wild celebrations which will erupt on this side of the Atlantic in the event of Trump being deposed. Yet it is far from clear how Britain would benefit from a Biden victory.
Biden could find himself a lame duck from day one, and a low-energy lame duck at that
From what we know, Biden would prioritise US relations with the EU over those with Britain — the opposite of what Trump promised. While a Trump victory could lead to a rapid trade deal between the US and Britain, Biden will be cooler. Our best hope might lie with his promise to reopen negotiations with the Trans-Pacific Partnership, of which Britain is also exploring membership — thus giving us a deal with the US through the back door.
Comments
Join the debate for just £1 a month
Be part of the conversation with other Spectator readers by getting your first three months for £3.
UNLOCK ACCESS Just £1 a monthAlready a subscriber? Log in