A 20-1 tip for the Northumberland Plate

All-weather racing is usually not for me: it too often serves up poor quality fare featuring either horses past their prime or horses who are simply never going to have a prime worth mentioning. However, the one all-weather race that I do study in depth each year is the Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate and that is because, with prize money of more than £80,000 for the winner, it attracts entries from some of the best staying handicappers.

As a result of scrutinising the entries that came out this week, I am having my first antepost bet of the flat season on a horse I am convinced is overpriced in in the race. Zoffee ran a superb race exactly a week ago in the tote Chester Cup on his first run of the season.

He split two well-handicapped horses, the winner Metier and the third horse Call My Bluff, both of whom had the advantage of prep runs. The ground would also have been much softer than that which Hugo Palmer’s seven-year-old gelding prefers. He has gone up 2 lbs in the ratings for that Chester run, but that’s more than fair.