Today, if the United Nations is to be believed, the world population will reach seven
billion. Almost as many words have already been written about the perils of a booming population, about how humans are bad for the environment and how — if current trends are extrapolated
— the entire Western world will end up with the population density of Hamleys on Christmas Eve.
In fact, mankind does not quite behave like this. As we grow richer, we tend to breed less. Look closely at the UN data and it shows that fertility is already below the replacement rate of 2.1 babies per woman in several countries. Extrapolate the UN’s medium-case estimates and you can find that the world population will peak (at ten billion) at the end of this century. Then decline starts, with the world’s supply of Americans running out in December 2400, and the last Frenchman keeling over in January 2501.
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