George Osborne has a funny way of saying ‘happy new year’. In his speech in Birmingham this morning, the Chancellor will describe 2014 as the year of ‘hard truths’ about how much more spending needs to be cut in order to close the deficit. So why is the Chancellor kicking off what most commentators are billing as an extremely long general election campaign with a bleak message about more cuts to come? In 2010, the three main parties did everything they could do avoid talking about the detail of the challenge on public spending. Now the Chancellor wants to make it his main weapon against Labour, knowing that voters have been ahead of politicians on supporting deficit reduction, that Labour’s main poll weakness is the economy, and that this focus on tough choices and economic credibility will spook Labour into making more awkward contortions over formerly pet projects and policies in order to give the impression of fiscal responsible.

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