Sebastian Payne

100 days till polling day: the Tories are just ahead but anything could happen

Today marks 100 days till the election — so how is the race looking? Still very close, according to the most recent opinion polls. In three polls released over the last 24 hours, the Tories are ahead by one point — according to YouGov, Survation and ComRes (notably, the first time they’ve put the Tories ahead since 2011). Only Lord Ashcroft has the Tories level pegging with Labour.

As the chart above shows, the two main parties are neck and neck. The Tories will be hoping these small leads will grow over the next few weeks while Labour will be pleased their opponents have yet to gain much traction. Ukip’s vote share appears to be holding up much stronger than most expected — YouGov and Ashcroft have them as low as 15 per cent and Survation as high as 23 per cent — while the Greens and Lib Dems are vying for a single-digit fourth place.

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