Labour narrowing the poll gap with the Conservatives has got to be good news for Keir Starmer, right? Wrong, actually.
Let me tell you why it isn’t and why the recent tightening of the polls should leave us more convinced than ever that the Conservatives are on course for a comfortable victory at the next general election.
First off, let’s take the headline data. Politico Europe’s poll of polls is as good a place to find it as any and it tells us that on 23 June the Tories were averaging 43 per cent, to Labour’s 33 per cent. By 29 July, the Tories were scoring 40 per cent to Labour’s 35 per cent. So a ten point average Tory lead has halved to a five point average Tory lead in the space of five weeks.
That’s clearly not sufficient to justify protracted cork-popping among champagne socialists at Labour HQ, but maybe a bargain basement bottle of prosecco could be opened? They shouldn’t even bother with that.
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