Save for those old enough to have lived through the second world war and its immediate austere aftermath, it would be hard to remember a Christmas which felt less festive. Or a new year that brings such foreboding. In spite of the severe restraints on our lives, which have been in place for months now, it seems likely that we will see some sort of third coronavirus wave with a third lockdown also on the cards. And at the same time, Britain will be embarking on a Brexit adventure that many people still see as reckless and unwanted.
Yet if we look a little beyond the immediate future, things begin to appear brighter. Not just because of the vaccine, but because of what the crisis says about our values and expectations: we accepted the restrictions because we value life more nowadays, and expect to live longer, healthier lives.
Think back half a century to the Hong Kong flu of 1968, which took more lives, per capita, than Covid-19 has so far. Life expectancy in the UK then was 71.7 years. It’s 81.4 years now. If Covid had struck just half a century ago, there would have been far fewer octogenarians and nonagenarians to protect.
If we look a little beyond the immediate future, things begin to appear brighter
The fact that the average age of a Covid fatality was 82 did not lessen the seriousness with which the virus has been treated, right across Europe. Yes, lives were saved at a huge economic cost — but it may not prove to be a permanent cost.
The Office for Budget Responsibility recently produced two scenarios for next year. The bleaker scenario sees Britain trapped in a cycle of lockdown-and-release, never quite getting ahead of the virus and suffering permanent economic scarring.
The best-case scenario sees the vaccine rolled out quickly, and the economy back on its feet by summer.
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