James Forsyth James Forsyth

As long as it is not Johnson, the Tories have little to fear from a change of PM

There are plenty of things to put a spring in the step of Tory MPs right now. Every day seems to bring a new poll that shows them on the way to victory, one today finds them running the table in their top thirty target seats, but what should cheer them most is that the one man who could realistically turn the next election into a genuine contest—Alan Johnson—appears uninterested in the leadership.

All the speculation so far is concentrating on David Miliband and Jack Straw. It is hard to see either of these men radically improving Labour’s fortunes.

Miliband is not as good a communicator as David Cameron and picking him would mean that Labour could not attack Cameron on grounds of inexperience, perhaps Cameron’s greatest vulnerability. Miliband would also be hobbled by inheriting a divided party, it is not hard to imagine that some of his Cabinet colleagues wouldn’t mind letting Miliband take the fall for a heavy Labour defeat at the coming election.

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