There are plenty of things to put a spring in the step of Tory MPs right now. Every day seems to bring a new poll that shows them on the way to victory, one today finds them running the table in their top thirty target seats, but what should cheer them most is that the one man who could realistically turn the next election into a genuine contest—Alan Johnson—appears uninterested in the leadership.
All the speculation so far is concentrating on David Miliband and Jack Straw. It is hard to see either of these men radically improving Labour’s fortunes.
Miliband is not as good a communicator as David Cameron and picking him would mean that Labour could not attack Cameron on grounds of inexperience, perhaps Cameron’s greatest vulnerability. Miliband would also be hobbled by inheriting a divided party, it is not hard to imagine that some of his Cabinet colleagues wouldn’t mind letting Miliband take the fall for a heavy Labour defeat at the coming election.
Straw is certainly experienced. But his elevation would seem to prove that Labour is tired and out of ideas. There would also be the loyalty problem: Straw has been involved in too many plots down the years for him to be able to effectively impose discipline on the party.
By contrast, Johnson is a natural communicator. He might not have a great policy brain—as he admitted rather too frankly on Desert Islands Discs—but he can sell things to the public better than any other member of the Cabinet. He also would have an easier time leading the party as no one believes that Johnson would want to stay on as leader of the opposition.
I don’t think anyone can save Labour from defeat at the next election. But Johnson would do a better job than any of the other contenders. He is the only one who would make it electorally worth Labour’s while to go through the pain of removing a sitting Prime Minister.
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