Ashis Ray

Myanmar is on the brink of civil war

(Photo by Getty Images/Getty Images)

For more than two months now Myanmar has been convulsed by a burgeoning civil war. The confrontation between the country’s military and large parts of the country has little prospect of an early resolution unless China and Russia withdraw their support for the junta, which jettisoned a five-year power-sharing arrangement with Aung San Suu Kyi’s party.

The country’s armed forces evicted the National League for Democracy from office in February but have failed to consolidate the coup d’etat. The younger generation of Myanmarese have tasted a decade of democracy and freedom — they show little sign of buckling. The men in uniform ruled oppressively from 1962 for nearly half a century, seeing off challenges to their brutal authority. The Burmese people seem unwilling to submit once more.

Gautam Mukhopadhaya, India’s former ambassador to Myanmar, observes: ‘The resistance will mutate but continue, shift to the countryside or neighbouring countries, turn to armed resistance or conflict or a digital struggle… But the Tatmadaw [military] will not prevail. And there are green shoots pointing towards a federal democratic union.’

More than 600 civilians, including children, have been gunned down since the coup. So, the protesters are forging alliances with disgruntled armed ethnic groups in Myanmar’s less trodden areas. Meanwhile the military shows little sign of stepping back. A sustained conflict is looking ever more likely by the day, wreaking utter ruin on a nation rich in natural resources.

The regime’s terror tactics have failed to deter defiance — there is daily, escalating unrest in the cities

The West has so far refrained from imposing sanctions on government departments administering energy, minerals and infrastructure development, which generate revenue for the regime. Breaking ties with military-owned companies is surely the first step in weakening the despotic generals.

Japan has also avoided destabilising its deep roots in Myanmar in the hope of currying influence over the troublesome dispensation.

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